{"id":18029,"date":"2026-10-16T14:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-16T19:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/expat-times.com\/panama\/?p=18029"},"modified":"2026-10-15T17:02:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-15T22:02:26","slug":"cepal-forecast-panama-exports-to-plunge-14-in-2026-bucking-regional-boom","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/expat-times.com\/panama\/business-economy\/cepal-forecast-panama-exports-to-plunge-14-in-2026-bucking-regional-boom\/","title":{"rendered":"CEPAL Forecast: Panama Exports to Plunge 14 % in 2026, Bucking Regional Boom"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The latest CEPAL trade forecast projects Panama’s goods exports<\/a> will contract 14 percent by the end of 2026, placing the country among only five economies in Latin America and the Caribbean expected to post negative numbers this year. The projection, released Tuesday in the annual report on international trade perspectives, stands in stark contrast to the regional average of 20 percent growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The collapse stems primarily from the shutdown of copper mining operations<\/a> and the normalization of trade flows<\/a> following unusually high prior-year records, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. First-half data already showed Panamanian goods exports<\/a> falling 23 percent year-on-year, including a dramatic 50 percent drop in June alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Panama’s service exports, particularly logistics and financial services tied to the Canal and banking sector, could partially offset goods declines.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

CEPAL Trade Forecast<\/a> Highlights Regional Divide<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Latin America’s overall export performance marks the strongest showing since the post-pandemic rebound of 2021. An 11 percent rise in export prices combined with a 9 percent increase in volumes drove the surge, extending a six-year growth streak for the region. Mexico leads manufacturing gains at 26 percent, fueled by nearshoring and demand for data processing and artificial intelligence machinery from the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But Panama’s trajectory runs counter to nearly every neighbor. Peru tops the regional table with projected 30 percent growth, followed by Mexico at 26 percent and Bolivia at 23 percent. Costa Rica and Colombia each anticipate 15 percent and 7 percent growth respectively. Only Saint Kitts and Nevis, Dominica, Cuba, and Grenada join Panama in negative territory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Before the shutdown, copper concentrate represented Panama’s single largest export product, generating billions in annual revenue. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Copper Mine Closure Reshapes Export Landscape<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Cobre Panam\u00e1 mine closure continues to reverberate through the country’s trade statistics. Before the shutdown, copper concentrate represented Panama’s single largest export product, generating billions in annual revenue. The loss of that revenue stream has exposed the economy’s reliance on extractive industries and raised questions about diversification strategies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jos\u00e9 Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs, CEPAL’s Executive Secretary, presented the findings during a press conference where he outlined how global trade is being reconfigured by economic security concerns, sustainability goals, and the geographic reorganization of value chains. The report emphasizes that countries dependent on commodity exports face heightened vulnerability to price swings and policy shifts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Una publicaci\u00f3n compartida por cepal_onu (@cepal_onu)<\/a><\/p><\/div><\/blockquote>\n