{"id":18448,"date":"2026-10-30T18:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-10-30T23:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/expat-times.com\/panama\/?p=18448"},"modified":"2026-10-30T11:34:26","modified_gmt":"2026-10-30T16:34:26","slug":"95-billion-copper-mining-losses-in-worst-case-scenario-in-panama","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/expat-times.com\/panama\/business-economy\/95-billion-copper-mining-losses-in-worst-case-scenario-in-panama\/","title":{"rendered":"$95 Billion Copper Mining Losses in Worst-Case Scenario in Panama"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

A new economic analysis projects copper mining losses could reach $95 billion for Panama if catastrophic failures occur at the Cobre Panam\u00e1 site<\/a> in Donoso, with ordinary citizens bearing the heaviest financial burden long after operations cease. The study, conducted by the nonprofit Conservation Strategy Fund in August 2026, examined environmental, health, and closure costs spanning from 2019 through 2074.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The report arrives just weeks after a government interministerial commission recommended that President Jos\u00e9 Ra\u00fal Mulino<\/a> authorize an “orderly closure” of the mine, a process officials insist would be financed entirely by mining activity itself rather than state funds. But the CSF analysis raises serious questions about who ultimately pays that bill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"copper
The closure and post-closure period from 2054 to 2074 would still generate significant obligations, particularly around environmental monitoring and public health management. <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Unequal Distribution of Copper Mining Losses<\/a><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The study breaks down financial outcomes for three key stakeholders: First Quantum Minerals<\/a>, the Panamanian government, and the general population. Under an orderly closure scenario, the mining company would collect roughly $105 billion in benefits, while the state would receive about $13 billion through royalties, taxes, and other contributions. Panamanian citizens would see approximately $34 billion in benefits, primarily from local purchasing and employment during the mine’s operational years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But the balance shifts dramatically when costs enter the equation. First Quantum would face about $75 billion in expenses, and the government would absorb $739 million in subsidies<\/p>\n\n\n\n

to water and land use concessions. The heaviest burden falls on Panamanian society, with estimated costs reaching $86 billion across three major categories: closure and post-closure obligations, public health impacts including heavy metal exposure and air pollution, and environmental damage from water contamination, erosion, deforestation, and lost ecosystem services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a catastrophic failure scenario involving a tailings dam collapse<\/a> or similar accident, those societal costs would balloon to $159 billion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

La factura del cobre: p\u00e9rdidas millonarias de la mina recaer\u00edan sobre los paname\u00f1os https:\/\/t.co\/2oMTDCfptT<\/p>— Jorge Luis Prosperi (@ProsperiJorge) October 30, 2026<\/a><\/blockquote>\n