Panamanian employers anticipate a more cautious hiring climate for the first quarter of 2026. A new employment survey reveals a significant quarterly drop in hiring intentions, even as some key economic sectors show resilience. The data points to a labor market adjusting to ongoing economic uncertainty.
The latest Net Employment Outlook (NEO) from ManpowerGroup shows a seasonally adjusted trend of 17 percent. This figure represents a seven percentage point decline from the current fourth quarter of 2025. It sits just one point above the outlook for the same period in 2024. Globally, Panama’s outlook trails the world average by seven points.
Hospitality Sector Leads Hiring Intentions
Survey results indicate 33 percent of employers plan to grow their workforce in early 2026. Another 41 percent expect to make no changes, while 13 percent plan reductions. The remaining 13 percent are uncertain. The hospitality industry, encompassing hotels, tour operators, and related services, leads all sectors with a 37 percent hiring intention. This strong showing positions Panama as the world’s sixth-highest country for hospitality hiring expectations.
“The results reflect resilience on the part of Panamanian employers, despite a still uncertain outlook. The slight recovery in non-mining sectors and the boost from the Panama Canal sustain employment growth,” said Dadhjy Jiménez, country manager for ManpowerGroup. [Translated from Spanish]
Following hospitality, the Utilities and Natural Resources sector reports a 35 percent hiring outlook. Commerce and Logistics sits at 27 percent, with Information Technology at 25 percent. Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services expect a 24 percent increase. Finance and Insurance round out the leading sectors at 22 percent. In stark contrast, Manufacturing reports a mere 3 percent hiring intention, its lowest level in four years.
Jiménez noted that while hospitality leads, persistent challenges in other sectors underscore the need for targeted talent strategies. The overall moderation suggests businesses are adopting a wait-and-see approach amid fluctuating economic indicators.
Regional and Company Size Disparities Emerge
Geographic analysis reveals notable disparities. The Metro Norte and “Other” regions both show the strongest hiring projections at 36 percent. The Central region reports a more modest 18 percent outlook. Company size dramatically influences hiring plans. Large organizations with 1,000 to 4,999 employees show the most optimism with a 44 percent outlook.
Small businesses with fewer than 10 employees present the only negative outlook, at minus 11 percent. This contraction highlights the disproportionate pressure on smaller enterprises. It may also reflect challenges in securing personal for specialized roles.
“The Metro Norte and Other regions lead hiring projections, while the largest organizations show the greatest momentum to expand their teams,” Jiménez emphasized. [Translated from Spanish]
The survey context includes a rising national unemployment rate. Preliminary data from the 2024 Labor Market Survey placed unemployment at 9.5 percent, up from 7.4 percent in August 2023. This increase represents over 46,000 additional unemployed individuals. Unofficial estimates suggest the current rate may now exceed 10 percent.
Concurrent with rising unemployment, job informality has grown. In 2024, approximately 49 out of every 100 non-agricultural workers held informal jobs. This marks an increase from 47 per 100 in August 2023. The total number of people in non-agricultural informal employment reached over 771,000 by October 2024. This trend compounds the challenges of measuring and stabilizing the labor market, particularly in areas like metro norte where economic activity is concentrated.
The combined data presents a complex picture for Panama’s near-term economic future. Employer caution tempers the positive signals from transportation, logistics, and tourism. The first quarter of 2026 will test whether this cautious optimism can translate into sustained job growth across more sectors of the economy.