New geospatial analysis reveals several Panama City neighborhoods have seen surface temperatures soar by up to 3.8 degrees Celsius since 2000, a rate of warming five times greater than nearby untouched forests. The study, conducted by Esri Panama, the Urban Risk Observatory of FSU, and Metromapas, points to unchecked urban development and material choices as the primary drivers of this intense local heating.
Researchers compared satellite imagery from two periods, 2000-2006 and 2019-2025, to map the change. While protected forests in the canal area warmed by 0.64°C over two decades, consistent with broader climate trends, the urban landscape told a different story. The data paints a stark picture of a city engineering its own thermal discomfort through concrete, asphalt, and metal roofs.
“This specific study helps us understand how the radiation received by surfaces, or the skin of the city, is a factor in generating spaces that feel hotter and more uncomfortable,” said Carlos Gordón, a Geographic Information Technology specialist who led the research. [Translated from Spanish]
The findings offer a scientific basis for the lived experience of residents in the hardest-hit areas. They confirm that the built environment is exacerbating heat risks, leading to potential health impacts and higher energy costs.
Mapping the Urban Heat Islands
The analysis focused on the phenomenon of the surface urban heat island, which measures the temperature of construction materials like roads and rooftops. Using thermal data from the NASA Landsat program, the team identified neighborhoods undergoing the most aggressive thermal transformation.
Brisas del Golf and Juan Díaz topped the list with an average surface temperature increase of 3.8°C. The district of San Miguelito followed, showing elevated temperatures of 3.2°C across its expanse. Central urban sectors like Betania, Pueblo Nuevo, and Río Abajo recorded a 2.6°C rise. Even coastal areas with natural breezes, including Casco Antiguo and Bella Vista, were not immune, warming by 2.1°C.
A city hot year-round translates to greater risks of heat exhaustion, worse nighttime rest, increased electricity consumption, and added pressure on vulnerable households. The concrete and metal surfaces absorb solar radiation throughout the day and release it slowly at night, preventing natural cooling.
Coastal Breezes and Blocked Mangroves
Panama City possesses a natural advantage with its coastal location and marine breezes. The study warns this benefit is being eroded by dense development that blocks air circulation. In areas like Costa del Este and Santa María, the combination of wide avenues, parking lots, and tall buildings appears to be stifling the cooling effect of nearby mangroves.
Those mangroves, which stretch between Panama Viejo, Costa del Este, and Santa María, now show surface temperatures similar to urban zones, around 33°C. While they still provide a slight cooling effect of up to 0.5°C less than adjacent areas, fragmentation and proximity to urbanization keep their temperatures relatively high. The natural infrastructure is losing its capacity to regulate the local microclimate.
Residents like Elizabeth, who lives near the Ricardo J. Alfaro highway and San Miguelito, describe the daily reality. Walking at noon becomes increasingly difficult, she says. Pavement burns even through shoes, the sun punishes the skin, and returning home after a few minutes outside can bring on near-dehydration.
A Blueprint for a Cooler Future
Beyond diagnosing the problem, the researchers intend for their geospatial analysis to serve as a guide for urban planning. The maps can help direct decisions aimed at reducing the capital’s heat impact. The goal is to move toward a more thermally comfortable city.
Recommended measures include a significant increase in urban tree planting and the promotion of reflective “cool” roofs on buildings. The study also advocates for bioclimatic design in new constructions, the preservation of ventilation corridors to facilitate air flow, and a reduction in impermeable surfaces like asphalt and concrete. Strategic greening and material changes could counteract the current warming trajectory.
The data provides a clear, localized roadmap. It shows exactly where intervention is most urgently needed to protect residents’ health and wellbeing. For city planners and developers, the study offers evidence that today’s construction choices directly shape tomorrow’s climate, right at street level.